Good Morning Traders
As you can see our morning announcements will be slightly changing headed forward. For the current time being, we will keep the same format but that will be changing in the near future so be on the lookout for that.
Futures are slightly down as the markets takes a breather from the heavy rally after last weeks softer than expected CPI report. This is to be expected after such heavy buying over the last 2 days of the week last week.
Biden met with Xi this weekend as the two countries begin to try and ease tensions. China is looking to ease up on their Zero Covid mandate which could help open up their economy which would significantly reduce supply chain tensions, therefore giving Chinese stocks, as week as US, a boost into the coming week. we will be keeping a close eye on that.
We will be cautious headed into this week as we are hitting a key 61.8% retracement level on SPX.
We could continue to push up to 4000 but we expect the markets will run into some resistance in this area.
It really depends on how we respond from this key level before we can decide on longer term swing trades. For now we will continue to hold the positions we are in and just watch the markets closely.
Fortunately there are no major economic news releases aside from Retail Sales numbers on Wednesday and Jobless claims Thursday.
This should be what I like to call a “normal” trading week as we should get average volume in trading levels, allowing for some nice opportunities to day trade and scalp. If we continue to climb this week, I expect we could see 4110 on SPX, but if we start to drop, a quick retracement back to 3900 down to 3830 could be possible this week.
We will be cautious and play the markets in front of us and hedge our open long positions accordingly.
The Semi conductor stocks last week had a massive run and I expect we could continue to see this sector outperform this week. Energy, Industrials, Financials, and Materials have all been on a massive run over the past few weeks and are starting to get into overbought territory so we will need to be cautious in playing those sectors, although I think these sectors are still the best to keep an eye on.
We should have a MASSIVE week of profits this week and will be targeting some great set ups! Cant wait to see you Live with us at 9:30am!
As always practice proper risk management and Good Luck!
Top Upgrades, Downgrades, Initiations, Pre-Market Movers, Unusual Options Activity, and Economic News
Unusual Options Activity
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
1. Biden, Xi
President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will speak Monday evening in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit — the first in-person meeting between leaders of the world’s biggest economies since the pandemic emerged. Biden seeks to prevent US-China ties from deteriorating further, said American officials who framed the meeting as the product of weeks of serious and diligent efforts from each side, meaning its very occasion has already somewhat warmed ties.
2. China rebound
China issued a 16-point plan to boost the real-estate market on Friday, the strongest sign yet that President Xi Jinping is turning his attention toward shoring up the world’s second-largest economy. The move pushed Chinese stocks into a bull market, even as the Hang Seng China gauge holds on to a loss of more than 25% this year. The latest MLIV Pulse survey showed 42% of 244 investors plan to increase their exposure to China in the next year, with the nation’s big-tech sector the most favored by institutional and retail respondents.
3. Crypto whipsaw
Major cryptocurrencies bounced after Binance Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao said the world’s largest digital-asset exchange plans to set up an industry recovery fund. That comes after a tumultuous weekend for rival FTX, which was once seen as among the best-run exchanges but has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Worrying details that have emerged include the fact that just before filing for bankruptcy, FTX Trading International held just $900 million in liquid assets against $9 billion of liabilities, according to sources familiar with the matter.
4. Stocks retreat
US equity futures pulled back, with S&P 500 contracts down 0.5% as of 5:48 a.m. in New York while Nasdaq 100 futures saw a steeper 0.7% decline. The dollar traded near its best levels of the day, pressuring all of its Group-of-10 counterparts. Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by 10-year rates that climbed for the first time in a week. Oil fell with gold, while Bitcoin gains exceeded 2% after earlier sliding more than 3%.
5. Coming up…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard is scheduled to speak about the economy at an event hosted by Bloomberg News in Washington at 11:30 a.m. We’ll also hear from New York Fed president John Williams at 6:30 p.m. Hedge funds’ 13F filings are due today.
What we’ve been reading
Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours:
- Answers to FTX’s bankruptcy may soon come from a Delaware court
- From bad to worse? Next year’s economic risks are already here
- Elon Musk says he’s working “ morning to night, seven days a week”
- Roche’s Alzheimer’s drug fails a pair of large studies
- London loses to Paris in contest for Europe’s biggest equity market
- Global banks are quietly cutting China jobs
- People with disabilities and chronic illness really want Twitter to survive
And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
The collapse of FTX may accelerate efforts to come up with clearer and stronger crypto regulatory guidelines in the US. You could imagine greater transparency for companies that service the industry. Maybe minimum disclosure requirements for crypto projects listed on centralized exchanges and so on. But on some level it’s hard to imagine any of them being effective, for a variety of reasons.
Chief among them is the fact that crypto and the regulatory apparatus are like oil and water.
Currency (fiat currency, that is) is a creature of the law. The law governs what you can do with your money. Who has the money. What constitutes legitimate transactions. When a transaction is deemed illegitimate it can be reversed. When money is acquired illegally, it be be disgorged. Mistakes and errors and hacks happen in the traditional banking system, and then in theory legal authorities step in and clean things up.
But a cryptocurrency is not a creature of the law. The rules about who can own it, and what constitutes a legitimate transaction are governed by a separate system: the consensus mechanism of a given blockchain.
And so any given coin that’s held at a regulated entity is essentially governed by two different regulatory entities: the law and the chain.
We saw this vividly on Friday night, when there were hundreds of millions in unauthorized crypto withdrawals from FTX just hours after the company filed for bankruptcy.
Here you have a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which prescribes rules about who can do what with a company’s assets while it goes through a legal restructuring. But then you have someone with access to the corporate’s wallets that can just ignore those rules entirely and operate by a separate set of rules: Those of the blockchain. The chain doesn’t know anything about Chapter 11. To the chain, those were just normal, rule-abiding transactions.
Now it’s possible that the coins can be traced in some way and returned. But it’s tricky. And by and large, irreversibility of transactions (settlement finality) is considered to be a feature, not a bug.
So there are theoretical safeguards that can be put in place to prevent unauthorized transactions and greater security and more transparency and so on. But fundamentally, what a blockchain does is attempt to recreate functions of government, by creating a new, decentralized approach to allocating property rights (Person A owns that. Person B owns this. They both owe debt to Person C). Governments do the same thing. And so the idea of regulated crypto may be an oxymoron, because it makes coins subject to two competing regulatory and legal systems at the same time.
Stocks We Are Watching
INTC has broken out of a big squeeze and held on the daily timeframe. We expect INTC could continue its run higher this week
RTX took a big sell off into Friday, we do expect this stock to continue to run up to 100.00 and a pullback was to be expected after such a long run to the upside. We will see how RTX trades today and make our adjustments as follows.
FDX is poised to run much higher after breaking out significantly to the upside.